Koribko proposes Japan's nuclear armament and South Korea's nuclear umbrella plan in the event of U.S. troop reduction

Andrew Korybko outlined a scenario in which Japan could go nuclear and extend a nuclear umbrella to South Korea if the U.S. sharply reduces its military presence in Northeast Asia, a premise built on Washington reworking its Eurasian security role through deals with Russia, Iran and China. Writing in a newsletter published on the 9th, Korybko framed the piece as a scenario outlook rather than a forecast, aimed at discussing the political compromises needed for a MAGA resurgence in 2028. In Europe, the scenario envisions withdrawing most or all U.S. troops from NATO members that joined after 1997 and potentially ending their nuclear umbrella as well. The idea matters because it sketches how a more transactional U.S. posture could push allies toward self-reliance, with Japan's nuclear status and South Korea's extended deterrence the key variables to watch.