Bitcoin has a 31% probability of falling below $70,000 on Christmas... put option share at 55%
Original headline비트코인, 크리스마스 7만달러 하회 확률 31%…풋 비중 55%
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Bitcoin’s probability of trading below $70,000 at the December 25 options expiry rose to 31% on Derive from 15% a week earlier, while the chance of exceeding $80,000 fell to 26% from 53%, according to The Block. BTC was trading near $73,500 at the time of the report and has posted five consecutive weekly declines. Derive’s bitcoin options volume reached $418 million last week, up 37% from the prior week, as traders increased downside protection. The shift matters because options pricing now assigns roughly a one-in-three chance of a sub-$70,000 Christmas close, a sharp deterioration from a week ago. Watch the Dec. 25 expiry positioning and whether put demand continues to build.
Muhabbit's AI wrote this summary in its own words from TokenPost's report and translated it from Korean. It can get details wrong, so check the source.
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Bitcoin (BTC), Derive, The Block
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