Evercore Names the 3 Conditions That Could Wipe Out S&P 500’s Gains

Evercore ISI outlined a worst-case midterm scenario that would drag the S&P 500 to 6,800 by year-end, erasing nearly all of the index's 2026 gains. The first condition—a Democratic sweep, with odds at 95%—already rattled markets, sending Nasdaq 100 futures down nearly 1.5%. The firm's bear case hinges on three conditions playing out together, though the article details only the first. The 6,800 target represents a sharp reversal from current levels and would wipe out the benchmark's year-to-date advance. Investors should watch whether the remaining two conditions materialize as midterm odds firm up.