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The Bank of Japan’s latest summary of opinions showed at least one board member arguing that the next rate hike would not deal a significant net blow to the economy, while estimating Japan’s neutral rate is likely well above 1%. The same member stressed that the BOJ must monitor financial conditions for several months after each rate move before deciding on further tightening. The remarks matter because they signal that policy normalization could continue beyond the current sub-1% policy rate, with the neutral-rate estimate implying more room to hike than markets may assume. Traders will watch upcoming BOJ communications and Japanese bond yields for confirmation of how quickly the board intends to move.

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Bank of Japan, Japan