Prediction markets had a great election night: Now bettors are turning to which Trump officials could leave first | Fortune

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, coming off correctly calling Democratic wins in both congressional chambers and several Senate races in the midterms, have shifted trader attention to who might exit Trump's Cabinet, with a Polymarket contract drawing nearly $190,000 in volume. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth leads at roughly 31%, followed by White House chief of staff Susie Wiles at 24% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 8%, while traders assign about 27% odds to no departure before 2027. Hegseth's position is under pressure from his role in the Iran war, with the House potentially voting as early as next week on impeachment articles brought by Republican Rep. Thomas Massie accusing him of waging war without congressional approval. Wiles faces blame from Republicans seeking a scapegoat for their midterm losses, including former Trump aide Caroline Sunshine's call for her resignation. The shift matters because incoming Democratic majorities are promising investigations into the administration, making Cabinet turnover a live market signal.