Anthropic early investors face up to 83% 'dilution pressure'... estimated by Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, estimated in his July 5 essay “D is for Dilution” that Anthropic’s early investors could face dilution pressure of up to 83% through June 2027. He flagged the expiry of lockups on shares held by employees and early backers at SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI as a key risk once those companies go public, since tradable supply would expand and the market must absorb it. Hayes noted that a lockup expiry makes previously restricted stock tradable but does not mean holders will actually sell. The estimate matters because it frames how much new float could hit these highly anticipated AI and space listings, and investors will watch actual selling by insiders and early investors as the lockups lapse.