S&P 500 real return 11.41%... valuation contribution 4.33%p

The S&P 500 delivered a real annualized return of 11.41% from the end of 2009 through August 2026, with 4.33 percentage points of that annual gain attributed to rising valuation multiples, according to RIA Advisors chief investment strategist Lance Roberts. Roberts calculated that real earnings growth contributed 4.91 percentage points and dividends 1.96 percentage points, with the three components summing to roughly 11.20 percentage points. The breakdown highlights how much of the index's long-run performance has come from investors paying more for each dollar of earnings rather than from underlying profit growth or payouts. Roberts cautioned that elevated valuations do not by themselves signal an imminent decline, saying he does not attempt to time the market. The result matters because it quantifies the market's dependence on multiple expansion, leaving the S&P 500 sensitive to any de-rating if earnings growth or dividend contributions fail to offset it.