The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is 68.7%.

CME FedWatch data as of Nov. 6 puts the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December at 68.7%, with just 31.3% odds of holding rates steady. For the January meeting, traders assign a 27.0% chance of no change, a 63.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis points of tightening, and a 9.5% chance of 50 basis points. The pricing signals that markets see a December increase as the base case rather than a coin flip, keeping the near-term path of U.S. monetary policy tilted toward further tightening. Rate expectations at this level matter for dollar funding costs and risk-asset positioning into year-end. What to watch next is how the odds shift around upcoming inflation and labor data, and whether January pricing builds in a pause after a December move.