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The Bank of England estimates the UK budget will add 0.1% to demand in 2026-27 before turning into a drag of just over 0.1% by 2029-30. The shift implies the fiscal package provides only a brief, modest boost to activity before weighing on growth later in the forecast horizon. The timing matters because it suggests near-term support fades into a small medium-term headwind rather than a lasting lift. Watch subsequent BOE projections and any revisions to the budget measures for whether that drag estimate changes.

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Bank of England