Goldman Sachs significantly cuts its gold price forecast: replicating the 2022 pattern, central bank support cannot offset the impact of rate hikes.

Goldman Sachs cut its gold price targets on November 5, lowering its end-2026 forecast to $4,150/oz from $4,650/oz and its end-2027 target to $4,800/oz from $5,400/oz, citing a hawkish Federal Reserve shift that it expects to culminate in a December 2026 rate hike and keep investor demand for macro hedges, particularly call options, near historical averages. Spot gold fell more than 1% on Thursday to an intraday low of $4,036.82/oz before rebounding above $4,100/oz. The bank said the setup increasingly mirrors 2022: central bank buying remains a strong structural bid, forecast at 60 tonnes per month in 2026-2027 versus a pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes and an estimated 85 tonnes currently on a seasonally adjusted three-month basis, but higher rates cap investor positioning and keep gains modest. Under a downside scenario with an additional March 2027 hike and a higher terminal rate, Goldman sees gold at just $4,660/oz by end-2027. It expects three rate cuts in the second half of 2027 through early 2028 to lift the rate constraint and revive ETF inflows, while noting that every 1 million increase in GLD net call open interest has historically added about 5% to gold prices, an amplification channel it excludes from its base case.