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A new poll shows the US 10-year Treasury yield holding at 5.00% over three months, easing to 4.96% in six months and 4.75% in a year, compared with 5.00%, 4.90% and 4.75% in October's survey. The six-month forecast was revised higher, signaling economists now expect a slower decline in benchmark borrowing costs. The 10-year yield anchors pricing across mortgages, corporate credit and global dollar debt, so the steeper near-term path matters for refinancing costs and duration risk. Watch upcoming inflation and labor data, Fed commentary and auction demand for signs of whether the 5.00% level holds or breaks.

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US 10-Year Treasury Yield