All 4 US recession warning lights are 'green'... 195,000 unemployment benefit claims

All four key US recession indicators are currently flashing green, with the 10-year/2-year Treasury spread at 0.38 percentage points as of November 5—positive and 0.06 points wider than the prior session—and no inversion recorded in the past two years, per St. Louis Fed (FRED) data. The Sahm rule stood at 0.00 in September, below its warning threshold, while initial jobless claims came in at 195,000, and the article notes no indicator showed a clear recession warning and little changed from prior releases. The signal matters because the yield curve inversion that historically preceded downturns has fully unwound, though the article cautions that an end to inversion does not by itself eliminate recession risk.