40% probability of the US 5-year yield reaching 5.15%... up 30% in a single day

The probability of the US 5-year Treasury yield reaching 5.15% before 2027 jumped to 40% on Polymarket, up 30 percentage points in 24 hours, according to PPP prediction market data cited by Odaily as of 10:10 p.m. KST on the 13th. The contract, titled "US 5-year Treasury yield reaches 5.15% before 2027," is priced by participants as an implied probability, so the 40% "Yes" reading signals that traders see roughly a two-in-five chance of the threshold being hit. The move matters because prediction markets are increasingly treated as a real-time gauge of rate expectations, and a sharp repricing toward higher yields can spill over into duration-sensitive assets. Watch whether the contract probability holds above 40% or fades in the coming sessions, and whether it converges with fed funds futures and spot Treasury moves.