Hegseth resignation bet 30.6%... Trump cabinet no-departure 31.1%

Pete Hegseth leads Polymarket’s “next Trump cabinet departure” market at 30.6%, but the “no departure before 2027” contract trades higher at 31.1%, implying bettors see no exit as slightly more likely than any single official leaving. Susie Wiles follows at 21.5% and Marco Rubio at 5.8%, with cumulative volume of $194,785 on the market. Polymarket’s rules count cabinet secretaries and the White House chief of staff, with a departure triggered by resignation, dismissal, or leaving the post. The split between the top individual and the no-exit contract matters because it shows the market pricing a wide field of possible exits rather than conviction in one name. Watch whether Hegseth’s share climbs past the no-departure contract and whether volume builds as the year-end resolution window approaches.