The dollar–crypto correlation, which has neared zero since 2025

The near-zero correlation between cryptocurrencies and the Bloomberg Dollar Index seen in 2025 and early 2026 marks a sharp break from 2022–2023, when the relationship occasionally fell to around -0.4, according to CME Group’s analysis of the two series. A negative reading means the assets tend to move in opposite directions, while a value near zero signals only a weak co-movement, and CME cautioned that correlation alone does not establish causation. The shift matters because it suggests dollar strength or weakness is no longer a reliable driver of crypto prices, complicating cross-asset hedging and macro-driven trading strategies. The backdrop includes U.S. September CPI rising 0.6% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% year over year unadjusted, alongside the Federal Reserve’s October 28 statement on its benchmark rate target range. Traders will watch whether the correlation stays muted as Fed policy and inflation data evolve, and whether crypto prices decouple further from dollar moves.