Polymarket: 98.4% of favored options won in settled midterm election markets

Polymarket reported that 419 of 426 settled U.S. midterm election markets—98.4%—resolved in favor of the favorite the day before the vote, with seven upset results and 78 markets still pending settlement. Favorite accuracy was 97.0% across Senate races, 97.1% for governor contests, and 98.6% in House races, according to a chart the platform shared. The tally covers only settled contracts, so the pending 78 markets could still shift the final hit rate. The results offer a high-profile accuracy data point for Polymarket's prediction markets as the platform faces growing scrutiny over liquidity and resolution standards. Traders will watch how the remaining markets resolve and whether the strong favorite win rate holds in future election cycles.