The largest IPO in history hits AI panic: valuation shrinks by 500 billion, Anthropic's IPO deadlock

Anthropic’s planned IPO, once expected to raise up to $100 billion at a valuation near $2 trillion, is now being repriced toward $1.1 trillion–$1.3 trillion after a sharp selloff in AI and semiconductor stocks on November 5, when the Nasdaq fell 5.52% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12.3%. Kalshi traders now put the odds of an Anthropic IPO this year below 60%, down from nearly 90% before the U.S. midterms, and some potential investors question whether the company can even hit a $1.5 trillion valuation or launch its roadshow in the week of November 9. The pressure follows Anthropic’s third-quarter disclosure of $16.956 billion in revenue, up about 47% quarter over quarter but a slowdown from roughly 145% growth in the prior quarter, alongside $895.4 billion in long-term compute purchase and lease commitments. The company also lost Claude Code product lead Cat Wu and first growth hire Austin Lau to OpenAI within two days, adding to concerns as investors wait for October revenue data to judge whether growth is reaccelerating. The outcome matters as a benchmark for how public markets will price frontier AI developers’ revenue against their massive compute liabilities, with the key things to watch being the final valuation range, whether the roadshow proceeds this month, and the October top-line figure.