US midterms: Prediction markets favor Democrats in key crypto races

Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing a 75% probability of a Democratic sweep in the US midterms, including in key crypto races, just days after prediction markets misjudged Brazil's runoff. The two platforms' odds imply traders see a strong likelihood that Democrats take the races most relevant to digital-asset policy, though neither market's pricing was quantified in token or volume terms in the report. The signal matters because prediction-market probabilities are increasingly treated as real-time benchmarks for political outcomes that shape crypto regulation and legislation. Watch whether the 75% odds hold or reverse as polling and turnout data arrive, and whether the platforms' pricing converges with or diverges from traditional forecasts ahead of election day.