US 10-year yield briefly tops 5% intraday... 85.3% probability of a 0.25%p hike in December

US 10-year Treasury yields briefly traded above 5% intraday on November 10, according to CME Group, though the Treasury's official daily par yield came in at 4.98%, up 0.10 percentage point from 4.88% a day earlier. The move followed October CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly headline increase and a 0.3% rise in core prices, which reinforced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. CME pricing put the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at 85.3%. The spike matters because a 5% long-bond yield tightens financial conditions across mortgages, corporate credit and equities, and traders will watch whether the 10-year sustains that level and whether Fed officials validate the December hike odds in coming comments.