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Odds of a 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike resurfaced after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and hawkish Fed commentary, according to Natixis. Prediction markets now assign roughly a 12% probability to a December increase exceeding 25 basis points, compared with about 85% for a standard quarter-point move. The shift matters because a larger hike would tighten liquidity conditions that have weighed on risk assets, including crypto. Traders will watch incoming inflation and labor data, along with Fed speakers, for confirmation before the December meeting.

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Federal Reserve, Natixis, Walter Bloomberg