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The New York Fed’s October consumer survey showed 1-year inflation expectations at 3.91%, above the 3.78% forecast and little changed from 3.90% previously, while 3-year and 5-year expectations held at 3.3% and 3.0%. Households’ unemployment expectations climbed to their highest level since April 2020, even as respondents reported improving personal financial outlooks and moderating gasoline inflation expectations. The mix matters because still-elevated near-term inflation expectations alongside rising job fears complicate the Federal Reserve’s easing path. Watch next for whether unemployment expectations keep climbing and whether the 1-year inflation gauge stays near 3.9%.

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US inflation expectations, New York Fed, unemployment expectations