Before the CPI release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December was 100%.
Original headlineCPI 公布前,美联储 12 月加息的概率为 100%
Not investment advice. Muhabbit scores how much a story may matter, not which way to trade.
Ahead of the U.S. October CPI release, CME FedWatch shows markets pricing a 0% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady in December, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis-point hike and a 1.1% chance of a cumulative 50 basis-point increase. For the January meeting, the odds of no change are also 0%, while a cumulative 25 basis-point hike is priced at 64.9% and a 50 basis-point rise at 34.8%. The pricing implies traders see a December increase as effectively certain and are leaning toward a slower pace of tightening into early next year. The CPI print is the next key input that could shift those odds.
Muhabbit's AI wrote this summary in its own words from TechFlow's report and translated it from Chinese. It can get details wrong, so check the source.
Named in this story
Federal Reserve, US CPI, CME FedWatch