Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Rises to $76,000 as MVRV Ratio Nears Break-Even Level

Bitcoin's short-term holders (STH) now have an average cost basis of approximately $76,000, with their MVRV ratio approaching 1, meaning the group is nearing break-even on aggregate positions, according to on-chain analyst Darkfost on November 1. The STH MVRV had peaked at 1.18 in late September, the highest level since July 2025, signaling unrealized profits at a more-than-one-year high, while the group's average cost basis has climbed steadily from $67,500 in mid-August to the current ~$76,000. Darkfost notes that with Bitcoin's medium-term momentum turning positive, the MVRV-near-1 zone could become a key decision area for short-term holders, who may either continue accumulating or capitulate with sell-offs if prices pull back. The metric is worth watching as a gauge of potential supply pressure, since STH behavior around break-even historically influences short-term price dynamics.