A post by @NickTimiraos on X.

The two-year Treasury yield jumped 0.18 percentage points on Tuesday, marking its largest single-day increase since April 9, 2025, according to Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos. That prior spike coincided with President Trump's suspension of most of his "Liberation Day" tariffs, making Tuesday's move the sharpest repricing of short-term rate expectations in roughly a year. The scale of the shift signals that traders are rapidly resetting their views on the Federal Reserve's policy path rather than adjusting around the margins. Because the two-year note is highly sensitive to near-term rate expectations, a move of this size typically reflects a meaningful change in how markets are pricing upcoming Fed decisions. Investors should watch the next round of inflation and labor data, along with Fed commentary, to see whether the move extends or reverses.