Inflation forecasts should approach reality

The Central Bank of Turkey raised its year-end inflation forecast to 29.5%, marking another upward revision that the article says is beginning to erode the institution's credibility. The revision follows a pattern of frequent forecast changes, which the piece argues must converge toward actual outcomes to preserve policy credibility. The bank also projects inflation of 21% for 2027, a target the article treats as the key test of whether its guidance can be taken seriously. The gap between repeated forecast upgrades and realized inflation is the central concern, since persistent misses undermine the bank's ability to anchor expectations. What to watch next is whether the 2027 projection holds or is revised again, and whether the bank's forecasts begin to align more closely with actual price data.