Derive: Probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 by Christmas rises to 31%
Original headlineDerive：比特币圣诞节跌破 7 万美元概率升至 31%
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Bitcoin options on Derive now price a 31% chance the token closes below $70,000 on Christmas, up from 15% a week earlier, while the probability of finishing above $80,000 fell to 26% from 53%. Derive CEO Nick Forster said traders are turning defensive, with bitcoin options volume on the platform rising 37% to $418 million last week and puts accounting for 55% of premium paid versus 36% the prior week. K33 research head Vetle Lunde noted bitcoin perpetual futures open interest stood at about 353,000 BTC on Tuesday, up 12% over 30 days while the price fell 10%. The buildup raises the risk of cascading long liquidations on a break lower or short covering on a rebound, either of which could amplify volatility. Traders will watch whether the put skew persists into year-end and whether the elevated open interest unwinds in an orderly way.
Muhabbit's AI wrote this summary in its own words from TechFlow's report and translated it from Chinese. It can get details wrong, so check the source.
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Bitcoin (BTC), Derive, Nick Forster, Vetle Lunde, K33
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