Fossil fuel emissions projected to fall 0.4%... Oil price rise from Iran conflict

Global fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026 from last year, according to analysis published by the Global Carbon Project in Nature Climate Change, with higher oil prices and supply constraints tied to the Iran conflict cited as a drag on petroleum consumption. By fuel, oil-related emissions are seen dropping 1.9% and natural gas emissions 0.3%, while coal emissions are expected to rise 0.6%, making oil the largest decline and coal the sole increase among the three. The measure covers fossil-fuel emissions only and excludes land-use change such as deforestation. The projected decline matters because it marks a rare drop in the emissions trajectory tied to energy-market disruption rather than policy, and the split between falling oil and gas use and rising coal will be the key signal to watch for whether the shift persists.