Fu Peng's 10,000-word interview: I have no faith in BTC, the four-year Bitcoin cycle is over

Macro economist Fu Peng argued in a wide-ranging interview that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is over, saying institutional portfolio management has replaced retail-driven, high-volatility trading and that the halving-based framework no longer governs price action. He framed BTC as one asset within a conventional risk spectrum—Nvidia at the low-volatility end, Bitcoin in the middle and Ethereum as the higher-beta expression—and said its fixed supply, while supporting value, caps how large a share it can occupy in global portfolios, implying a ceiling of roughly two to three times its ~$1 trillion market cap versus Nvidia's ~$4 trillion. He also dismissed RWA tokenization of gold as unnecessary given how liquid the metal already is, and said traditional and crypto research methodologies will converge with no meaningful distinction. The remarks matter as a signal that institutional allocators view crypto as a portfolio line item rather than an ideology, with lower volatility and retail displacement as the expected consequence. What to watch next is whether BTC's volatility compresses further as institutional flows build, and whether its share of multi-asset portfolios stalls near commodity-like levels.