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US CPI inflation has climbed 30.2% since January 2020 to a record high, according to The Kobeissi Letter, equivalent to a 4.0% annualized pace over the period—roughly double the Fed's 2% target. The analysis highlights how far cumulative price growth has outpaced what a steady 2% path would have produced, underscoring the persistence of inflation above target. The gap matters because it shapes expectations for how long the Federal Reserve may keep policy restrictive. Next, markets will watch upcoming CPI prints and Fed communications for signs of whether that divergence is narrowing.

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Named in this story

US CPI, Federal Reserve