Turkey’s October CPI Expected to Rise 2.20%… Annual Inflation May Ease

Turkey's October CPI is forecast to rise 2.20% month-over-month, according to an AA Finans survey of 21 economists released October 28, with responses ranging from 1.25% to 2.70%. If the average forecast materializes, annual inflation would slow to 29.28%, down from September's monthly increase of 1.84%. A separate Bloomberg HT survey of 16 institutions, published October 27, put the median monthly rise at 2.42% and the median annual rate at 29.59%. The two surveys differ in sample size and methodology, so the figures should be treated as projections rather than official readings. The data matters for expectations around the Turkish central bank's policy path, as continued disinflation could shape rate decisions. Markets will watch the official CPI release for confirmation of whether the disinflation trend is holding.