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The UK private sector is expanding and household resilience remains intact despite an energy shock and more than £80 billion in tax rises enacted since Labour took power in 2024, according to First Squawk. The assessment suggests the economy has absorbed both fiscal tightening and higher energy costs without the private-sector contraction many had feared. The scale of the tax increases—over £80 billion—makes the continued expansion notable, as it implies businesses and consumers have so far withstood a significant hit to disposable income and margins. The read-across matters for UK growth and inflation expectations, since a booming private sector could keep demand and price pressures elevated. What to watch next is whether household spending and business activity hold up as the full weight of the tax measures feeds through, and whether the energy shock fades further.

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UK economy, Labour