Bitcoin falls every fourth quarter in midterm election years... rises after one year in all cases

Bitcoin analyst Joe Consorti noted in a November 4 post on X that bitcoin has fallen in the fourth quarter of each of the last three U.S. midterm election years, yet in every case traded higher one year after the election than at the time of the vote. He argued investors should not be misled by the Q4 drawdowns, noting bitcoin posted the highest returns among major assets in the year following each of those three elections. The observation frames the current pullback as a recurring seasonal pattern rather than a structural break, though Consorti separates the risk of further near-term declines from the longer-term recovery case. The analysis covers only three midterm cycles, a small sample, so the pattern is historical precedent rather than a guarantee. What to watch next is whether bitcoin follows the prior cycles and recovers over the coming year, or whether macro conditions this time produce a different path.