Social Security could pay full benefits until 2059 if taxable payroll kept pace with GDP: AARP report

AARP’s Public Policy Institute reported that Social Security could pay full benefits until 2059 if taxable payroll had kept pace with GDP, rather than the current projected depletion date of 2033. The analysis attributes part of the trust funds’ shortfall to slower growth in taxable payroll, not solely to an aging workforce. The finding matters because it reframes the program’s financing gap as partly a wage-base and payroll-growth problem, which could shape debates over tax and benefit changes. Watch for how lawmakers and actuaries respond to the payroll-to-GDP gap in upcoming trustees reports and reform proposals.