Superhuman-level AI researchers likely to emerge in 2027... 6 authors predict

The AI Futures Project’s six co-authors now expect superhuman AI researchers (SAR)—systems capable of matching top human researchers—to likely emerge during 2027, moving their central estimate up from December 2028 to May 2027. In a forecast revision published on the 10th, they put a 35–65% probability on “AI surpassing top experts,” capable of automating much of office work, arriving before 2028. Co-author Daniel Kokotajlo cited the METR report as the single biggest basis for the shift, while stressing the projection assumes development speed is not significantly slowed. The revision matters because it compresses the timeline for AI-driven white-collar automation and raises the stakes for how quickly labs, employers and policymakers adapt. What to watch next is whether subsequent METR-style evaluations and frontier model releases keep supporting the accelerated pace.