ECB wage tracker suggests slightly higher wage growth in first three quarters of 2027 compared with the full year of 2026

The ECB’s wage tracker points to slightly faster wage growth in the first three quarters of 2027 than across the whole of 2026, signaling persistent domestic cost pressures as policymakers assess inflation. The indicator is closely watched because wages are a key input into services inflation and the ECB’s rate decisions. The projected pickup is modest rather than a sharp acceleration, but it suggests pay growth may not cool as quickly as hoped. Investors will watch upcoming ECB staff forecasts and negotiated wage data to see whether the tracker’s signal feeds into a slower easing path.