Fed, Treasury, and Congress triple pressures叠加, Goldman Sachs: A liquidity crisis will emerge in 2027

Goldman Sachs strategists led by Isabella Rosenberg warned in a November 10 note that U.S. bank reserves, at roughly 11% of bank assets, sit at the edge of the steep segment of the demand curve, leaving repo markets exposed to a liquidity crunch expected to peak in the second half of 2027. The bank projects the Treasury will rebuild its cash balance (TGA) after the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling binds around February 2027, alongside net T-bill supply rising about $200 billion to $1.1 trillion and roughly $60 billion more in bills that non-Fed buyers must absorb, while money market fund inflows have stalled near $250 billion this year versus $800 billion in each of 2024 and 2025. Goldman expects the Fed to restart reserve-management T-bill purchases at about $10 billion a month, rising to $25 billion a month from Q2 2027 and adding roughly $255 billion of reserves over the year, even as markets have fully priced a 50bp hike in December and the 2-year yield has jumped to 4.61%. The report flags a policy contradiction, with the Fed buying bills while signaling tightening and only beginning rate cuts in late 2027, just as liquidity stress concentrates. It cites 2019, when overnight repo spiked to 10% after a TGA rebuild, and 2025, when banks drew a record $50 billion from the Standing Repo Facility, as precedents. Investors should watch the debt-ceiling timeline and X-date forecasts, which BMO warns could slip to Q4 2027 amid a protracted standoff, along with T-bill auction sizes from August 2027 and money fund weighted average maturities.