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October jobs data offered no reason to revise the Fed’s assessment of growth and inflation, even as the figures reflect hiring decisions made months earlier, according to Nick Timiraos. The more pressing question is whether the AI-driven selloff will force a rethink of how the Fed’s “new monetary medicine” is tightening financial conditions. That tension now carries into December, with Warsh arguing he would rather read forward-looking markets than lagging data. Which signal wins is the key question for the policy path ahead.

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Federal Reserve, Nick Timiraos, Warsh