3.35 million vs. 3.5 million barrels a day: conflicting estimates for Iraq's October crude oil exports

Iraq's October crude export estimates diverge sharply depending on methodology, with two energy officials cited by Reuters putting average daily shipments at about 3.5 million barrels—including roughly 400,000 bpd via Turkey's Ceyhan port—while a separate ship-tracking compilation reported by Shafaq News showed 3.35 million bpd, up 9.5% from September. The two figures cannot be combined as a single confirmed monthly result because their calculation methods differ. The discrepancy matters because Iraq's export volumes are a key swing factor for OPEC+ compliance and global crude balances, and the Ceyhan route remains a critical outlet for northern Iraqi barrels. Baghdad's proposal to route crude to the Red Sea via Saudi Arabia still requires new pipeline construction and bilateral agreement, leaving the timeline uncertain. Watch for Iraq's official SOMO figures and any progress on the Saudi transit plan as the next signposts.