Prediction markets: CFTC threatens Kalshi with imminent lawsuit

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has warned prediction market Kalshi of imminent litigation over its certification of event contracts, according to Politico. The dispute sits within a prediction market sector valued at roughly $11 billion, pitting Kalshi's self-certified contracts against the CFTC's view of its regulatory authority. The standoff matters because it could determine whether event-based contracts trade under federal derivatives rules or face state-level restrictions. What to watch next is whether the CFTC formally files suit and how the case shapes the legal footing for rivals such as Polymarket.