Assuming $850 billion in cash at the end of December... US Treasury borrowing outlook

The U.S. Treasury set a year-end Treasury General Account (TGA) balance assumption of $850 billion for its borrowing plans, a month-end figure used in the quarterly refunding statement released on February 4. The same plan projects peak TGA balances of $1.025 trillion in November and in late January 2027, each with a ±$50 billion range, though these are mid-month peaks rather than month-end levels. The TGA is the Treasury's account at the Federal Reserve, and its balance fluctuates with the timing of tax receipts and government spending. The distinction matters because the December assumption and the November/January peaks reflect different points in time, so the figures are not directly comparable. Market participants will watch how actual TGA balances track these projections, since swings in the account drain or add reserves in the banking system and can affect short-term funding conditions.