A gap of 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, Norway's 2040 outlook

Norway’s offshore oil and gas production gap is projected to reach 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2040 under Rystad Energy’s base scenario, reflecting exploration and development conditions rather than a single production forecast. Rystad said the gap could widen to 2.2 million boepd if exploration activity stays at the level of the past decade, while halving the time from discovery to production would reduce it to 2.1 million boepd. Even with exploration doubled and development timelines halved, a 1.4 million boepd gap would remain. The analysis underscores the scale of future Norwegian supply shortfall as existing fields mature and new resources are needed to offset decline. Rystad noted about 3.2 billion barrels of resources discovered in Norway since 2016. What to watch next is whether exploration rates and faster project sanctioning can narrow the 2040 gap.