Tonight, a strong nonfarm payrolls report could deal another heavy blow to US stocks.

The October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, lands just one day after the Nasdaq 100 plunged 6.36%—its worst session since March 2020—as the AI trade unraveled, with the S&P 500 down 4.36%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index off 12%, and the VIX up 11.5 points to 28. Consensus expects payrolls to rebound to about 65,000 from September's 29,000 (Goldman Sachs: 75,000), with unemployment steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-over-month, though Revelio tracks just 26,000. Options markets are pricing a 1.45% S&P 500 straddle move, the widest single-day implied swing since March. The stakes are elevated because a strong print could revive December rate-hike odds—already trimmed to about 17.25 basis points (70% probability) from 21 basis points (83%) after Thursday's selloff—reinforcing Fed Chair Warsh's "measured pace" guidance and comments from Hammack and Barkin favoring further tightening. Watch the unemployment rate, which at an unrounded 4.18% could tip to 4.1% or 4.3%, and any revision to prior months, which last time proved as market-moving as the headline; Goldman models up to $7.48 billion in S&P 500 futures selling over the next week if markets fall another 2.5 standard deviations.