The U.S. CPI report will be released at 9:30 tonight. With the year-over-year data absent, what should investors focus on?

US October CPI data will be released Tuesday at 21:30 ET, with economists polled by Reuters expecting headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, down from 0.6% in September, and core CPI to increase 0.2%, the smallest gain in three months. The report will lack a year-over-year figure because the October 2025 government shutdown left no comparable base-period data, forcing markets to rely on monthly readings and detailed components to gauge inflation trends. The release is the last CPI report before the Fed's December policy meeting, and it follows a stronger-than-expected October nonfarm payrolls gain of 165,000, which reinforced views of a resilient economy. Corporate earnings calls have amplified inflation concerns, with S&P 500 companies mentioning "inflation" 820 times in October, the most since February 2024, as firms like General Motors and PPG Industries flag cost pressures. Investors will watch whether core goods and services prices cool, particularly housing, transportation and used vehicles, while Friday's October PPI is expected to accelerate to 6.6% year-over-year, the highest in nearly four years. A softer core CPI print could temper rate-hike expectations, while an upside surprise may prompt markets to reassess how long rates stay elevated.