Prediction Markets Favor Another Drop as Year-End Bitcoin Price Forecasts Sour

Polymarket traders on Nov. 7 assigned a 52% probability to bitcoin falling to $70,000 before January and only 9% to a $100,000 recovery, while Kalshi participants clustered year-end expectations between $70,000 and $80,000. The souring forecasts signal a difficult close to 2026 for the largest cryptocurrency, with prediction-market odds now leaning toward further downside rather than a rally. The shift matters because these venues aggregate trader conviction on future prices and can influence positioning into year-end. Traders will watch whether spot bitcoin confirms the implied $70,000–$80,000 range and whether the 52% probability of a $70,000 retreat rises further as January approaches.