Anthropic IPO's biggest winner: Amazon's $18.6 billion investment turns into $258 billion, Google locks in $100 billion cloud order

Anthropic’s updated IPO prospectus disclosed for the first time the scale of Amazon’s and Google’s stakes and paper returns: Amazon’s roughly $18.6 billion investment maps to about $258 billion in shares at the midpoint of the proposed IPO range, while Google’s roughly $33 billion investment corresponds to about $132 billion. Amazon could theoretically hold about 20% of Anthropic but is capped at 12%, with the remainder held as convertible notes, while Google will hold about 10% under a 14.99% cap. The filings also lock in cloud spending commitments payable regardless of actual usage—at least $121 billion to Google Cloud by July 2033 plus up to $150 billion more for TPU-based compute, and at least $110 billion to Amazon’s cloud by 2036—giving both companies a large revenue pipeline beyond equity gains. The disclosure matters because investors who cannot buy or do not want to chase Anthropic’s new shares can gain indirect exposure through Amazon or Google, though both also compete with Anthropic in software, as shown by the productivity app launch that pressured Microsoft and Google shares. Next, watch the final IPO pricing, which the Financial Times suggested could come in above the initial range, and any further investment tied to the 2030 commitments.