Glassnode Weekly On-Chain Report: Momentum Stalls at Support, Short-Term Holder Capitulation and a Review of the $78K Cost Basis Zone

Bitcoin slipped about 10% from its September high and briefly broke below its $77,700 True Market Mean on Nov. 3, touching $76,100 before recovering, with the $75,700 short-term holder cost basis and 200-day moving average now acting as support. The share of short-term holder supply in profit collapsed from 97.5% in early October to roughly 38%, washing out speculative gains and cooling valuation stretch, while leveraged longs built up since August were largely flushed. Short liquidations are now clustering near $87,000, and the options market shows call open interest outweighing puts, concentrated at $80,000–$120,000 strikes for late-December expiries. Spot volumes remain about 1.5x the pre-August baseline, but U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks. The market absorbed a record $6.3 billion Binance hack with only a ~3% drawdown, and bitcoin matched the S&P 500 on half of trading days, regaining a 50% daily win rate for the first time since March 2025.