Will Eurozone inflation exceed 4%? ABN AMRO ($ABN) outlook

ABN AMRO said in a November 5 report that eurozone inflation will peak well above 4% and stay elevated for much of 2027, warning the episode is a new wave rather than a repeat of 2022. The call followed Eurostat’s October flash HICP estimate, which put eurozone inflation at 4.0% year on year, up from 3.8% in September. Energy prices rose 20.8% after a 18.9% gain the prior month, while services rose 3.3%, food, alcohol and tobacco 1.6%, and non-energy industrial goods 1.2%. The data matter because energy is again driving the headline rate above the ECB’s 2% target, complicating the rate outlook. Watch whether energy base effects fade in coming months and whether services inflation, at 3.3%, proves sticky enough to keep ABN AMRO’s above-4% peak scenario intact.