Developer: The next soft fork of the Bitcoin network has an 80% probability of being BIP-54.
Original headline开发者：比特币网络下一次软分叉有 80% 的概率是 BIP-54
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Bitcoin developer Matt Corallo said there is an 80% chance the network's next soft fork will be BIP-54, the "great consensus cleanup" proposed in 2019 to fix four long-standing flaws in Bitcoin's consensus rules, including a difficulty-adjustment defect and denial-of-service attack vectors among miners. Speaking on MARA Foundation TV, Corallo described the fixes as addressing problems everyone agrees on and giving developers who have never been through a soft fork hands-on experience. LayerTwo Labs co-founder Paul Sztorc called the upgrade a "cleanup fork that does nothing," and a TABconf survey of developers he cited found most expect activation no earlier than September 2027, with more pointing to 2028 or later. The proposal matters because it would be Bitcoin's first soft fork in years and a test of its rough-consensus upgrade process. What to watch next is whether developer signaling converges on BIP-54 and whether the 2027–2028 activation timeline holds.
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Named in this story
BIP-54, Bitcoin (BTC), Matt Corallo, Paul Sztorc, LayerTwo Labs, MARA Foundation TV
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