JPMorgan oil report: Global supply surplus reached 1.4 million barrels per day

JPMorgan reported that global oil supply exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels per day in October, even as shipments through the Iran conflict zone remain at risk. The bank attributed the surplus to recovering Middle East exports combined with weakening consumption, a combination that has intensified debate over the direction of crude prices. The finding matters because it suggests the market is looser than wartime risk premiums imply, undercutting the case for sustained price gains. Traders will watch whether Middle East export volumes hold up and whether demand weakness persists, since either shift could narrow or widen the surplus in coming months.