Sequoia Partners: SpaceX is on the eve of an Nvidia-style growth explosion, with Starship, AI computing power, and direct-to-cell satellite connectivity severe

Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire published a bottom-up financial model on X arguing that SpaceX is on the verge of an Nvidia-style revenue explosion that most investors severely underestimate, citing top talent density, a low-cost supplier position in AI compute infrastructure, Starship's "historic moat," and Starlink's unit economics. Maguire pegs Starlink's current annualized revenue at roughly $20 billion, built on about 400 Falcon 9 launches, and estimates a single Starship launch—carrying roughly 20x a Falcon 9's payload—could support about $1 billion in annual revenue, or $5 billion over a five-year satellite life. He projects AI compute costs will stay above $20 billion per gigawatt for the next four years, positioning SpaceX as the low-cost, most flexible player even if prices fall toward $10 billion per gigawatt. He also expects Direct to Cell revenue to surpass core Starlink by 2029-2030, with orbital compute becoming material in the model from 2029 and SpaceX achieving chip-level vertical integration comparable to its rocket position within a decade. Maguire frames the call as contrarian amid macro-driven market panic, noting the forecast would strike over 90% of investors as crazy. Watch for Starship commercial operations, gigawatt-scale data center buildout progress, and Direct to Cell rollout as the key validation points for the thesis.